问题 单项选择题

关于致死性家族性失眠症的叙述错误的是()

A.是罕见的常染色体显性遗传性的朊蛋白病

B.病变以丘脑最重,有明显的神经元丢失,胶质增生,无海绵状变性或较轻微

C.睡眠障碍是本病最突出的早期症状

D.患者总睡眠时间进行性显著减少,患者只有依靠催眠药物才能入睡

E.可表现有自主神经功能障碍、锥体束征、小脑体征、痴呆和肌阵挛等

答案

参考答案:D

完形填空
For centuries people dreamed of going into space. This dream began to seem possible when high-flying rockets were built in the early 1900s.
In 1903 a Russian teacher named Konstantin Tsiolkovsky figured out how to use rockets for space travel. His plan was the first one in rocket science to use correct scientific calculation. About 30 years later, a U.S. scientist named Robert Goddard built the first rockets that could reach high altitudes. During World War II, German scientists built large rockets that could travel very far and carry dangerous explosives. After the war, scientists from Germany went to the United States and the Soviet Union to help those countries build space rockets.
These two countries were soon racing to get to space first. Each of these countries wanted to prove that it was stronger and more advanced than the other one. Both countries also had powerful bombs. People in the United States were worried when the Soviets were first to launch a space satellite, which was called Sputnik. The Soviets were also first to send a person into space. Yury Gagarin orbited the earth in the Vostok I spaceship in 1961.
The US government set a goal for its space program to be the first country to put a person on the Moon. The U.S. space program built a series of Apollo spaceship. These vehicles were powered by huge Saturn 5 rockets. In 1969 Apollo II took three men to the moon successfully. Nell Armstrong became the first person to walk on the Moon.
The Soviets may have lost the race to fly people to the Moon, but they built the first space station in 1971. The United States also built a space station. The space stations allowed people to live and work in space. Then the Soviet Union and the United States cooperated to hook two spaceships together in space. This action ended the "space race". Today a much larger space station, built by several countries together, orbits Earth.
Another new way to go to space is by space shuttle. A space shuttle, first made in the United States in 1981, looks like an airplane. Astronauts who fly spaceships have used shuttles to help put satellites into space.
The (1) of Space Travel
Time
Events
Information concerned
Early 1900s
High-flying rockets were built.
It made the ancient dream of going to space possible to come(2)   
1903
Konstantin Tsiolkovsky (3)
a way to use rockets for space travel.
He planned to put correct scientific calculation to use in rocket science.
Around 1933
Robert Goddard built new
rockets.
The rockets could fly very(3)in the sky.
During and after World War II
German scientists built large rockets that could travel very far and carry dangerous explosives.
Germany was ahead of all the other countries in building space rockets and later it even offered5)  to the Soviet Union and the United States
 
The Soviet Union and the United States competed to get to space first.
The Soviet Union became the6▲  
of the race when it launched the first satellite and sent  the  first  astronaut into space.
1969
The United States (7in putting a person on the moon.
In one way, it 8) ▲ the Soviet Union by becoming the first country to fly people to the moon.
1970s
The Soviets built the first space station and was soon followed by Americans. And they finally ended the  "space race" by
(9) ▲ 
Astronauts can live and work in space stations.
1980s--
Space shuttles are used as new vehicles for space (10) ▲  .
Shuttles are also used to help put satellites into space.
问答题

甲企业位于B地区,主要生产A产品。某咨询公司接受甲企业的委托,完成了下列咨询服务工作:
(1)A产品成熟度分析:A产品的技术趋于稳定,市场需求迅速增加,生产规模逐步提高,生产该产品的企业数量也在迅速增加,生产成本呈下降趋势;
(2)A产品销售量预测:咨询工程师收集了2005~2009年A产品在B地区的平均销售价格和销售量,见附表14,采用移动平均法预测了2010~2019年A产品在B地区的销售量,见附表15。

附表14 2005~2009年A产品在B地区的培元销售价格和销售量

年份平均销售价格/(元/台)销售量/万台价格弹性系数
2005810080
2006780085-1.69
2007760089-1.84
2008730095-1.71
20097100100-1.92

附表15 2010~2019年A产品在B地区预测销售量

年份2010201120122013201420152016201720182019
A产品预测销售量/万台(n=3)95979796979796979796
(3)甲企业的内部和外部影响因素评价:运用评价矩阵对甲企业的内部因素和外部因素进行了综合评价,评价矩阵见附表16。

附表16 甲企业的企业的内部和外部因素评价

关键内部因素权重积分关键外部因素权重得分
优势研发能力强0.204机会政策扶持0.204
管理规范0.254信贷环境宽松0.153
产品性能处于行业中等水平0.153行业技术进步0.152
劣势流动资金紧张0.10-3威胁新的替代产品出现0.25-2
生产设备较落后0.10-2竞争对手结盟0.25-1
销售渠道不畅通0.20-3

问题:


咨询工程师选择移动平均法预测A产品的销售量是否恰当说明理由。