问题 解答题

(本小题满分12分)

有甲、乙两种相互独立的预防措施可以降低某地区某灾情的发生.单独采用甲、乙预防措施后,灾情发生的概率分别为0.08和0.10,且各需要费用60万元和50万元.在不采取任何预防措施的情况下发生灾情的概率为0.3.如果灾情发生,将会造成800万元的损失.(设总费用=采取预防措施的费用+可能发生灾情损失费用)

(I)若预防方案允许甲、乙两种预防措施单独采用,他们各自总费用是多少?

(II)若预防方案允许甲、乙两种预防措施单独采用、联合采用或不采用,请确定预防方案使总费用最少的那个方案.

答案

解(I)若单独采用甲预防措施,可能发生灾情的损失费用的期望值为

(万元);       ————2分

若单独采用乙预防措施,可能发生灾情的损失费用的期望值为

(万元).         ————4分

所以,单独采用甲预防措施的总费用为124万元,单独采用乙预防措施的总费用为130万元.                                      ————6分

(II)若实施联合采用方案,设可能发生灾情的损失费用为X,则X = 0和800,且

所以,可能发生灾情的损失费用的期望值为6.4万元,因此总费用为116.4万元.

————9分

若不采取措施,则可能发生灾情的损失费用的期望值为

万元.          

可知此时的总费用为240万元.                  ————11分

综上,选择联合预防措施的方案总费用最少.      ————12分

选择题
阅读理解

Everyone knows that the French are romantic, the Italians are fashionable and the Germans are serious. Or do they? Are these just stereotypes or is there really such a thing as national character? And if there is, can it affect how a nation succeed or fail?

At least one group of people is certain that it can. A recent survey of the top 500 entrepreneurs (实业家) in the UK found that 70 percent felt that their efforts were not appreciated by the British public.

Britain is hostile to success, they said. It has a culture of jealousy (嫉妒) . As a result, the survey said, entrepreneurs were “unloved, unwanted and misunderstood”. Jealousy is sometimes known as the “green-eyed monster” and the UK is its home. Scientists at Warwich University in the UK recently tested this idea. They gathered a group of people together and gave each an imaginary amount of money. Some were given a little, others a great deal. Those given a little money were given the chance to destroy the large amounts of money given to others—but at the cost of losing their own. Two thirds of the people tested agreed to do this.

This seems to prove the entrepreneurs were right to complain. But there is also conflicting evidence. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently reported that the UK was now the world’s fourth largest economy. That is not bad for people who are supposed to hate success. People in the UK also work longer hours than anyone else in Europe. So the British people are not lazy, either.

“It’s not really success that the British dislike,” says Carey Cooper, a Professor of management at the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology. “It’s people using their success in a way that seems arrogant (傲慢) or unfair or which separates them from their roots.”

Perhaps it is the entrepreneurs who are the problem. They set out to do things in their way. They work long hours. By their own efforts they become millionaires. But instead of being happy they complain that nobody loves them. It hardly seems worth following their example. If they were friendlier, people would like them more. And more people want to be like them.

小题1:What does the underlined “it” in the second paragraph refer to__________?

A.One group of people

B.A great survey

C.A nation

D.National character小题2:Most entrepreneurs surveyed believe that       .

A.the British public are hardworking

B.they are not popular simply because they are successful

C.love of success is Britain’s national character

D.they are considered as “green-eyed monsters”小题3:What does the result of the Warwich University test show_________?

A.Most people would rather fail than see others succeed

B.Two thirds of the people tested didn’t love money

C.An imaginary amount of money does not attract people

D.Most people are willing to enjoy success with others小题4:The writer of the passage seems to suggest that        .

A.jealousy is Britain’s national character

B.British entrepreneurs are not fairly treated

C.the British dislike the entrepreneurs because they do not behave properly

D.the scientists at Warwich University did a successful test小题5:Which of the following statements is true according to the passage?

A.Everyone knows that the French are romantic, the Germans are fashionable and the Italians are serious.

B.About 350 entrepreneurs in the UK felt that their efforts were not appreciated by the British public.

C.The British people are not lazy and they work longer hours than anyone else in the world.

D.Carey Cooper said that the British really dislike success.