问题 问答题 计算题

某汽车制造厂正在预测下年度的销售额。该公司的预测人员已估计了6种不同的“环境一策略”组合的销售额:

预测人员认为发生经济衰退的概率是0.20,而经济正常发展的概率是0.80;他还认为公司营销预算高、中、低的概率分别是0.30、0.50、0.200他得到的单点预测值是多少?

答案

参考答案:

经济衰退的期望值正,为:

E1=15×0.30+12×0.50+10×0.20=12.5

经济正常的期望值正2为:

E2=20×0.30+16×0.50+14×0.20=16.8 F=∑EiPi=12.5×0.20+16.8×0.80=15.94

因此,下年度该汽车厂可能的销售额为15.940

阅读理解

阅读理解。

     A man accused of failing to return more than 700 children's books to five different libraries in the county

was released from prison after a book publisher agreed to post his bond (保释金) of $1,000. The publisher

said. "There's a story here. This is a man who loves books. He just can't let go of them. He hasn't stolen a

single book. So what's the crime? We think that Mr. Banish has a story to tell. We plan to publish his story."

     When asked why he didn't return the books. Mr. Banish said, "Well, how could I? They became family

to me. I was afraid to return them, because I knew that kids or dogs would get hold of these books and chew

them up, throw them around, tear the pages, spill soda on them, get jelly and jelly on them, and drown them

in the toilet.

     He continued, "Books are people, too! They talk to you,they take care of you, and they enrich you with

wisdom,humor and love. A book is a guest in my home. How could I kick it out? I repaired torn pages. I

dusted them with a soft clean cloth. I turned their pages so they could breathe and get some flesh air."

     "Every week I reorganized them on their shelves so they could meet new friends, My books were happy

books. You could tell just by looking at them. Now they're all back in the libraries, on the lower shelves, on

the floors, at the mercy of all those runny-nosed kids I can hear them calling me. I need to rescue them.

Excuse me. I have to go now."

1. Why was the man put into prison? [ ]

A. Because the book publisher persuaded the police to do so.

B. Because he stole 700 children's books from the five different libraries.

C. Because he refused to return the books that he had borrowed.

D. Because he wanted to publish his story.

2. How did the man treat books? [ ]

A. He treated them as real people.

B. He treated them as his own children.

C. He treated them as his furniture.

D. He treated them as his job.

3.From the passage we can learn that the man is _____. [ ]

A. a thief

B. a writer

C. crazy about books

D. unfortunate

4. What might happen after the man was set free? [ ]

A. He might stop borrowing books.

B. He might start a library of his own.

C. He might go on borrowing books from libraries.

D. He might return all his books

多项选择题