问题 问答题

某企业为了对A地区近期产品消费市场进行分析和预测,收集了该地区2009~2011年的产品销售数据,见表16,并采用简单移动平均法,预测2012年各季及全年销售量。

同时,该企业为制订长远发展规划,还拟采用德尔菲法,对A地区的产品需求进行10年期的长期预测。

问题

该企业采用简单移动平均法预测2009年销售量是否妥当,说明理由。

答案

参考答案:

该企业采用简单移动平均法预测2012年销售量妥当。

理由:简单移动平均法适用于短期预测,在大多数情况下只用于以月度或周为单位的近期预测,而且有历史数据。

选择题
阅读理解

Crowd controls could soon become an important skill for climbers on Mount Everest, as important as physical strength or watching the weather. In a single day last week, nearly 40 people reached the top of the world --- a record. Reports from base camp spoke of queues at dangerous ridges and crowds as people passed each other in the final dash for the 8, 848 meters top.

More traditional mountaineers tease about the circus atmosphere surrounding Everest in re­cent years, and there are warnings that the crowds are making the mountain more dangerous. In 1996, 14 died on the mountain when the members of several groups were trapped at high altitudes by sudden snowstorms. Bad weather in early May led to this year’s jam on the summit ridge, but the loss, luckily, was light. Just four climbers died, in­cluding a Nepali Sherpa who had made 11 previous successful climbing.

Traditionalists are also worried about the growing tendency of climbers to set records and achieve “firsts”, rather than simply climb the mountain. This year’s crop of mountaineers included the oldest man, 64-year-old Sherman Bull from Connecticut, and the youngest, 16-year-old Temba Tsheri Sherpa of Nepal. An American with only one arm was on the mountain this year; an Indian with no legs also tried but failed. Erik Weihennieyer, an Ameri­can, became the first blind person to reach the top of the world. His fellow climbers stayed in front of him on the way up, describing the type of land and ringing bells.

Nepal(尼泊尔)views Mount Everest as something of a cash cow. The government charges journeys a minimum of $ 70,000. That is probably why officials in Katmandu are ignoring concerns about overcrowding and talking about even more climbers coming next year. But a celebration of the 48th anniversary of the first conquest of Everest, by Sir Edmund Hillary and Sherpa Tenzing Norgay, was cancelled after violent strikes. Tumultuous(动乱的)Nepali politics, it seems, could be just the crowd-control mea­sure that Everest needs.

小题1:What is the problem that the climbers have to face in recent years?

A.Bad Weather.

B.Technology.

C.Overcrowding.

D.Physical strength.小题2:What is the main idea of the second paragraph?

A.The risks of mountain climbing.

B.The consequence of overcrowding.

C.The challenge that climbers have to face.

D.The damage that snowstorms have caused.小题3:Several climbers are mentioned in Paragraph 3 to show ______.

A.their great courage

B.their common motivation

C.their different identity

D.their outstanding achievements小题4:What is the attitude of the Nepali government towards overcrowding?

A.Unconcerned.

B.Doubtful.

C.Disapproving.

D.Worried.