问题 问答题

简述德尔菲法的基本程序。

答案

参考答案:德尔菲法的基本程序:
(1)确定预测目标。常常是影响大而且意见分歧的课题,可用于技术预测和技术市场预测。
(2)选择被调查的对象。对专家的主要要求有:专家的代表面应广泛,通常包括技术专家、管理专家、情报专家和高层决策人员;专家群体的权威程度要高,即使没有高级职称,但是长期接触,熟知所调查的问题,亦可称为专家。专家小组一般以20~50人为宜,大型预测可以100人。
(3)设计评估意见征询表。表格要简明扼要,设计得好的表格,通常能使专家的主要精力放在思考决断上,而应答填表的时间并不长。填表的方式要简单,对事件进行评估时,尽可能让专家用数字和英文字母表达自己的意见。
(4)专家征询和轮间信息反馈。德尔菲法一般分3~4轮征询,第一轮是事件征询,由专家提出应预测的事件。第二轮是事件评估,评价的主要内容包括时间预测、方案择优、决策评价和资金分配比例等。第三轮是轮间信息反馈与再征询,专家可修正自己前一轮的评估意见。第四轮一般将落选的意见整理成征询表反馈给专家,再给予一次评估的机会。四轮征询结束后,将收敛程度高的意见用数理统计的方法整理出来,写出预测报告。

单项选择题

阅读下列短文,从每题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项。

C

When John was growing up, other kids felt sorry for him. His parents always had him weeding the garden, carrying out the garbage and delivering newspapers. But when John reached adulthood, he was better off than his childhood playmates. He had more job satisfaction, a better marriage and was healthier. Most of all, he was happier. Far happier.

These are the findings of a 40-year study that followed the lives of 456 teenage boys from Boston. The study showed that those who had worked as boys enjoyed happier and more productive lives than those who had not. “Boys who worked in the home or community gained competence (能力) and came to feel they were worthwhile members of society,” said George Vaillant, the psychologist (心理学家) who made the discovery. “And because they felt good about themselves, others felt good about them.”

Vaillant’s study followed these males in great detail. Interviews were repeated at ages 25, 31 and 47. Under Vaillant, the researchers compared the men’s mental-health scores with their boyhood-activity scores with their boyhood-activity scores. Points were awarded for part-time jobs, housework, effort in school, and ability to deal with problems.

The link between what the men had done as boys and how they turned out as adults was surprisingly sharp. Those who had done the most boyhood activities were twice as likely to have warm relations with a wide variety of people, five times as likely to be well paid and 16 times less likely to have been unemployed. The researchers also found that IQ and family social and economic class made no real difference in how the boys turned out. Working----at any age----is important. Childhood activities help a child develop responsibility, independence, confidence and competence---the underpinnings (基础) of emotional health. They also help him understand that people must cooperate and work toward common goals. The most competent adults are those who know how to do this. Yet work isn’t everything. As Tolstoy once said, “One can live magnificently in this world if one knows how to work and how to love, to work for the person one loves and to love one’s work.”

Vaillant’s team obtained their findings by().

A. recording the boys’ effort in school

B. evaluating the men’s mental health

C. comparing different sets of scores

D. measuring the men’s problem solving ability

填空题