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Blair Admits Never Having Sent Flowers to His Wife


British Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted on a television programme that he has never sent flowers to his wife Cherie and that he had a youthful crush on Hollywood beauty Grace Kelly.
Blair, who allowed Channel 4 interviewer June Sarpong to shadow him for two days last month, made other personal (1) when asked questions he rarely hears on the usual television political (2) .
During the interviews for a program targeting 18-30 year (3) , the prime minister admitted he sometimes has to "wing it" when (4) public appearances and that he yearns to go out for a drink (5) being recognised.
However, the most dramatic revelation was his reply to Sarpong’s (6) on whether he still sends his wife flowers, prompting his interviewer to (7) in disbelief. "I’ve never sent her flowers. If I sent her flowers, she would (8) worried," Blair said.
But he added: "I am romantic. There are other ways of (9) romantic."
Blair needed a few moments to recall which posters he had (10) his bedroom wall as a youngster, then revealed: "I’ll tell you... actually, (11) I was younger, I loved Grace Kelly."
Born in 1929, Kelly (12) in films like ’Dial M For Murder’, ’Rear Window’ and ’High Society’ in the mid-1950s, but (13) acting to marry Prince Rainier of Monaco in 1956, when Blair was (14) two years old.
Blair admitted he initially found it "odd" to be (15) minister and to be rushed in motorcades from appointment to (16) , and worried that his lifesty left him "a bit isolated" from (17) people.
He admitted that he was constantly on the phone between public (18) , and rarely had time to prepare for his next (19) , telling Sarpong: "I wing it all the time."
And he revealed he has to check himself before he replies to (20) questions from the public. "The worst thing is when someone is giving you a real earful and you think ’I’m going to say something I will regret’," he said.
Asked what he would do if he could be invisible for a day, Blair yearned for a more ordinary life, saying he would "just walk down the street and go to the pub... just be absolutely normal".

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某投资咨询单位承担了某投资项目的可行性研究咨询业务,在完成了市场分析、建设条件和厂址选择、工艺技术方案的确定、环境影响和社会影响分析评价、财务评价与国民经济评价等工作内容后,确定了该项目的财务效益是可接受的,国民经济的直接效益和间接效益均能满足要求。下面一步是需要对该项目进行相关的风险分析评价。
【问题】
1.咨询工程师通过分析,确定了项目的关键风险变量有投资、产品销售价格、原材料价格和项目寿命期等,并且产品销售价格和原材料价格均是连续型随机变量。然后,咨询工程师选择了蒙特卡洛模拟法进行风险分析。你认为他的选择正确吗是否可选用概率树方法进行风险分析,为什么
2.在用蒙特卡洛模拟法分析中,确定输入变量时要注意什么问题如何解决
3.在模拟过程中,既要保证模拟结果的可靠性,又要考虑节省模拟费用和计算工作量,模拟的次数K一般定为多少为宜
4.输入变量的概率分布通常有哪些类型
5.咨询人员在分析投资的概率分布时采用了专家调查法。
(1)专家组成员应由哪些人组成
(2)每个专家采用什么样的方式提出投资变量的状态及相应的概率
(3)当出现专家的意见分歧程度较大时,如何处理
6.下表是该项目投资变量状态及其概率的专家调查的结果,请计算投资的概率分布、期望值、方差及离散系数(在调查时明确:认为低于10000万元,则取10000万元,10000万~11000万元之间取11000万元,11000万~12000万元取12000万元,12000万~13000万元之间取决于 13000万元。初步调查结果表明,没有专家认为投资额会超过13000万元)。

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