问题 问答题

某投资咨询单位承担了某投资项目的可行性研究咨询业务,在完成了市场分析、建设条件和厂址选择、工艺技术方案的确定、环境影响和社会影响分析评价、财务评价与国民经济评价等工作内容后,确定了该项目的财务效益是可接受的,国民经济的直接效益和间接效益能满足要求。下一步需要对该项目进行相关的风险分析评价。
问题

咨询工程师通过分析,确定了项目的关键风险变量有投资、产品销售价格、原材料价格和项目寿命期等,并且产品销售价格和原材料价格均是连续型随机变量。然后,咨询工程师选择了蒙特卡洛模拟法进行风险分析。你认为他的选择正确吗是否可选用概率树方法进行风险分析为什么

答案

参考答案:咨询工程师的选择是正确的。由于风险变量的个数超过了3个,且有连续随机变量,在这种情况下,如用概率树法,分析的工作量极大,因此概率树法并不适用于该项目的风险评价。

阅读理解

阅读理解。

                                                    May: Happenings from the Past

     May 5,1884

     Isaac Murphy, son of a slave and perhaps the greatest horse rider in American history, rides Buchanan

to win his first Kentucky Derby. He becomes the first rider ever to win the race three times.

     May 9,1754

     Benjamin Franklin's Pennsylvania Gazette produces perhaps the first American political cartoon (漫画),

showing a snake cutsin pieces, with the words" Join or Dic" printed under the picture.

     May 11,1934

     The first great dust storm of the Great Plains Dust Bowl, the result of years of drought (干旱), blows

topsoil all the way to New York City and Washington, D.C.

     May 19,1994

     Jacqueline Lee Bouvier Kennedy Onassis, former first lady and one of the most famous people of the

1960s, died of cancer in New York City at the age of 64.

     May 24, 1844

     Samuel F.B Morse taps out the first message, "What Hath God wrought," over the experimental

long-distance telegraph line which runs from Washington, D,C, to Baltimore, Md.

1. We know from the text that Buchanan is _____.

A. Isaac's father

B. a winning horse

C. a slave taking care of horses

D. the first racing horse in Kentucky

2. What is the title of the first American political cartoon?

A. Join or Die

B. Pennsylvania Gazette

C. What Hath God Wrought

D. Kentucky Dorby

3. In which year did the former first lady Jacqueline die?

A. 1934

B. 1960

C. 1964

D. 1994

4. Which of the following places has to do with the first telegram in history?

A. Washington, D.C.

B. New York City.

C. Kentucky.

D. Pennsylvania.

单项选择题