问题 问答题

购买力平价和利率平价理论(theory of purchasing power parity & theory of interest-rate parity)

答案

参考答案:购买力平价和利率平价是汇率决定理论的两种形式。购买力平价说(简称PPP),其基本思想是:货币的价值在于它所具有的购买力,两种货币间的汇率及其变动决定于两国货币各自所具有的购买力之比。购买力平价理论在长期的发展过程中出现了多种形式,主要有绝对购买力和相对购买力两种形式。绝对购买力平价认为汇率取决于不同货币衡量的可贸易商品的价格水平之比,即取决于不同货币对可贸易商品的购买力之比。相对购买力平价认为汇率的升值与贬值是由两国的通胀率的差异决定的。购买力平价的理论基础是货币数量说。在购买力平价理论看来,货币数量决定货币购买力和物价水平,从而决定汇率。所以汇率完全是一种货币现象。
利率平价理论的思想由凯恩斯于1923年首次提出,他认为汇率波动由两国利率差价决定,不久英国学者爱因齐格进一步阐述了远期差价与利率之间的相互关系。利率平价说的基本观点是:远期差价是由两国利率差异决定的,并且高利率国货币在期汇市场必定贴水,低利率国在期汇市场上必定升水。在两国利率存在差异的情况下,资金将从低利率国流向高利率国以牟取利润。利率平价理论又分为抵补利率平价和非抵补利率平价两种。前者假定投资者的投资策略是进行远期交易以规避风险,因此分析的是汇率远期升贴水率的实际值。后者即非抵补利率平价理论,即假设交易者根据自己对未来汇率变动的预期来计算预期的收益,在承担一定的风险情况下进行投资活动,因此分析的对象是汇率升贴水率的预期值。
同为汇率决定理论,购买力平价和利率平价的分析角度不同。购买力平价理论从汇率是两种不同货币的价格的性质着手研究汇率的决定及其变动规律。它主要由开放经济下一国与外国商品市场间存在的联系分析汇率与价格水平间的联系。利率平价理论则考虑到现实生活中,开放经济下一国与外国的金融市场之间的联系更为密切,国际资金流动的发展使汇率与金融市场上的价格一利率之间也存在着密切的关系。
在理论关系上,购买力平价和利率平价互相补充。购买力平价侧重于从中长期的角度分析,一国发行的货币数量决定货币的购买力,进而决定两国的汇率水平;与之相比,利率平价说是一种短期内的分析,在短期国际金融市场上,货币(资金)的供求数量决定利率(资金价格)的波动,进而国际资金的流动又使利率间的差异影响汇率。

名词解释
单项选择题

German Chancellor Angela Merkel won over German voters in the Federal Election on Sept. 27. Can she now be won over by a French charm offensive (1) at repairing the relationship that was once at the heart of Europe That’s the question being asked in Paris, (2) top government officials are (3) talking about their desire to rekindle closer ties (4) their neighbors across the Rhine. (5) the end of World War II the Franco-German relationship has been the motor of European integration, the (6) force behind the creation of the European Union and, more recently, the introduction of the euro. But the ardor has (7) in this decade, particularly under Merkel, who has regularly struggled to (8) her irritation with French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s grandstanding. Sarkozy, (9) , has often been impatient with what he (10) Merkel’s lack of resolve.

The sometimes (11) personal rapport is a long way from the public shows of affection their predecessors staged, particularly Helmut Kohl and FranCois Mitterrand, who movingly held (12) in 1984 in a Verdun cemetery. There’s been tension on (13) , too. Charles Grant, director of the London-based think tank Centre for European Reform, points out that France and Germany have been (14) on issues from how best to reflate their economies during the economic (15) to the smartest strategies for dealing with Russia.

But influential movers in France are now (16) to put the relationship back on a friendlier footing. In a recent paper French think tank Institute Montaigne (17) an ambitious agenda for the two nations, (18) that a new impetus is needed if Europe’s voice is to be heard in a world (19) of big new players, such as Brazil and India, and at a time when President Obama seems fax more (20) with China and the rest of Asia than with America’s traditional allies in Europe.

9()

A. on the whole

B. in turn

C. on the other hand

D. on the contrary