FOR the past two years in Silicon Valley, the centre of America’s technology industry, conference-goers have entertained themselves playing a guessing game: how many times will a speaker mention the phrase "long tail" It is usually a high number, thanks to the influence of the long tail theory, which was first developed by Chris Anderson, the editor of Wired magazine, in an article in 2004. Though technologists and bloggers chuckle at how every business presentation now has to have its long-tail section, most are envious of Mr Anderson, whose brainwave quickly became the most fashionable business idea around.
Whether a blockbuster film, a bestselling novel, or a chart-topping rap song, popular culture idolizes the hit. Companies devote themselves to creating them because the cost of distribution and the limits of shelf space in physical shops mean that profitability depends on a high volume of sales. But around the beginning of this century a group of internet companies realized that with endless shelves and a national or even international audience online they could offer a huge range of products—and make money at the same time.
The niche, the obscure and the specialist, Mr Anderson argues, will gain ground at the expense of the hit. As evidence, he points to a drop in the number of companies that traditionally calculate their revenue/sales ratio according to the 80/20 rule—where the top fifth of products contribute four-fifths of revenues. Ecast, a San Francisco digital jukebox company, found that 98% of its 10,000 albums sold at least one track every three months. Expressed in the language of statistics, the experiences of Ecast and other companies such as Amazon, an online bookseller, suggest that products down in the long tail of a statistical distribution, added together, can be highly profitable. The internet helps people find their way to relatively obscure material with recommendations and reviews by other people and (for those willing to have their artistic tastes predicted by a piece of software) computer programs which analyze past selections.
Long-tail enthusiasts argue that the whole of culture will benefit, not just commercial enterprises. Television, film and music are such bewitching media in their own right that many people are quite happy to watch and listen to what the mainstream provides. But if individuals have the opportunity to pick better, more ideally suited entertainment from a far wider selection, they will take it, according to the theory of the long tail. Some analysts reckon that entire populations might become happier and wiser once they have access to thousands of documentaries, independent films and sub-genres of every kind of music, instead of being subjected to what Mr Anderson calls the tyranny of lowest-common-denominator fare. That might be taking things a bit far. But the long tail is certainly one of the internet’s better gifts to humanity.
According to the first paragraph, the author believes that（）
A. America’s technology industry prefers conferences
B. "long tail" is a new concept of business
C. technologists mention "long tail" in every speech
D. long-tail section began to form in 2004
参考答案：B
解析：
[试题类型] 推理引申题。
[解题思路] 根据题干关键词the first paragraph定位到文章第一段。该段描述了长尾理论受到的热捧。长尾理论最初是由《连线》杂志的编辑克里斯·安德森在2004年的一篇文章中提出的(...long tail theory, which was first developed by...)，此人的灵感竟然迅速成为风靡一时的商业理念(whose brainwave quickly became the most fashionable business idea around)。由此可知，长尾理论是一种新的商业理念，选项[B]与此相符，故为答案。
[干扰排除] 该段首句提到，过去两年来，在美国硅谷参加会议的人们常玩一个猜谜游戏：一名发言者将会提到多少次“长尾”这个词这句话的目的是引出长尾理论，并说明长尾理论在这些人中的巨大影响力，但不能说叫美国的科技产业喜欢开会，故排除选项[A]。该段最后一句指出，目前每个商务演讲都有陈述长尾理论的部分，技术专家和博主们都觉得这很可笑。这句话并不意味着技术专家自己在每一次发言时都会提及长尾理论，故选项[C]错误。该段第二句指出，长尾理论最初是由《连线》杂志的编辑克里斯·安德森于2004年提出的，该选项偷换概念，将long tail theory换为long tail section(阐述长尾理论的部分)，故排除选项[D]。