问题 问答题

根据开放的宏观经济模型,怎样制定货币政策才能既可以保持固定汇率,又可以有效地调节国内的宏观经济

答案

参考答案:(1)蒙代尔—弗莱明模型(Mundell-Fleming Model)是在开放经济条件下分析财政货币政策效力的主要工具,被称为开放经济下进行宏观分析的工作母机。蒙代尔—弗莱明进一步扩展了米德对外开放经济条件下不同政策效应的分析,说明了资本是否自由流动以及不同的汇率制度对一国宏观经济的影响,因而被称为蒙代尔—弗莱明模型。它将封闭经济下的宏观分析工具IS—LM模型扩展到开放经济下,并按照资本国际流动性的不同,对固定汇率制与浮动汇率制下财政政策和货币政策的作用机制、政策效力进行了分析研究。
蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的政策涵义十分明确:在固定汇率和资本完全流动条件下,由于利率和汇率保持相对稳定,货币政策的传递机制,即通过利率变动影响投资,进而影响产出水平的机制,其功能自然会遭到比较严重的削弱,从而货币政策无效;同样道理,利率稳定即可以基本消除财政政策引起的挤出效应,从而实现财政政策的最佳效果。因此,当一国面临的外部冲击,主要是国际金融和货币因素的冲击时,则固定汇率制应该是较为理想的汇率制度。毕竟在固定汇率制下,国际资本套利活动可以自发化解货币因素的外部冲击,并且使财政政策纠正经济失衡的效果达到最优。
(2)固定汇率条件下的货币政策效应:
①资本自由流动条件下的M—F模型
在M—F模型中,如右图所示,CM线的斜率为无穷大,即CM线为水平直线如图所示。当国内利率超过国际利率,资本流入;反之,国内利率低于国际利率,资本流出。因此,一国的国内利率水平受国际市场利率水平的影响,政策当局的经济政策不但不能改变利率水平,反而要受国际资本流动的影响。


②货币政策无效论
如图所示,中央银行通过扩张性的货币政策促进经济增长。货币供应量增加,LM→LM1,利率下降到 A点,则资本外流,国际收支逆差,并增加本币贬值的压力。为维持固定汇率,中央银行进行市场干预,LM1→LM。其结果货币供应量与收入不变,但国际储备下降了。因此,在固定汇率与资本自由流动的情况下,货币存量是内生的,它主要取决于商品市场需求的影响。


假定由于种种原因,人们对商品需求增加(特别是扩张的财政政策刺激总需求),此时,IS→IS1(如下图所示),国内利率上升,资本大量流入,则国际收支顺差,汇率面临升值压力。为维持汇率水平,中央银行市场干预使货币供应量上升,LM→LM1。最终结果是总需求、收入与货币供应量均上升,国际储备增加。 M—F模型的结论:在固定汇率制度下,资本流动的条件使得货币政策无力影响收入;而财政政策在影响收入方面则更有效力。
③资本完全管制下的情形
在固定汇率条件下,如果政策当局实行资本管制,资本在国际间不能流动,则国内利率与国际利率水平存在差异,中央银行只需对经常项目下的外汇供求负责,LM线会随国际收支的变化而移动。
假定中央银行主动采取扩张性货币政策,货币供应量增加,LM→LM1,如下图所示,总需求增加,利率下降,为实现均衡,中央银行抛出外汇,满足进口,LM→L2利率上升。这一过程将持续进行,直至恢复原来水平。可见,货币政策对经济没有实质性影响。


同样,以扩张性财政政策刺激总需求,使IS→IS1。中央银行进行干预,则LM→LM2。最终总需求、国民收入不变,只有r*→r2
因此,在固定汇率和资本管制下,扩张性货币政策对总需求短期有效,长期无效。而在长期内,扩张性财政政策对总需求只影响结构,不影响水平。

填空题

You might think that hamburgers were invented in the United States, but that is not totally true. These (1) , or patties, actually came from Germany in the middle of the nineteenth century. They were brought to the United States by (2) who came from the city of Hamburg. That is why (3) was "hamburger steak".

However, people in other places (4) that they invented the hamburger. Perhaps we’ll never have a (5) . But there’s no question that the hamburger was a (6) . Why Perhaps because at that time, industry was growing and a kind of (7) food was needed for workers.

The hamburger became even more popular (8) when the first chain of fast food restaurants was started. This chain was called "White Castle". It served tiny hamburgers that were sold for only (9) . Then, in the 1930s there came the (10) where customers were served in their cars by waiters in uniform. And the hamburger was one of the most (11) .

By now, The hamburger was ready to (12) the world. And this happened with McDonald’s, which was actually a (13) at first. But by the early 1950s the hot dog was replaced by the hamburger. McDonald’s and other fast food restaurants (14) around the world throughout the rest of the twentieth century. McDonald’s alone has (15) for everyone person in the world.

The importance of the hamburger to (16) remains significant. About (17) of all sandwiches that are eaten are hamburgers. According to some sources, (18) of current workers in the United States had their first job at McDonald’s. But the face of the hamburger is changing (19) . Nowadays it is possible to buy a chicken burger, a turkey burger, (20) , or veggie burger.

15()

单项选择题 B型题