问题 问答题 简答题

简述专家决策法、德尔菲法的主要内容和实施步骤。

答案

参考答案:

专家决策法是基于专家的知识、经验和分析判断能力,在历史和现实有关资料综合分析的基础上,找出预测对象未来的发展趋势及状况,并作出决策。可分为个人决策法和会议决策法两种。

个人决策法:是指依靠专家个人对预测对象未来的发展趋势及状况作出的判断。顺序是先征求专家个人的意见、看法和建议,然后对这些意见、看法和建议加以归纳、整理,得出一般结论。

专家会议决策法是指邀请专家以召开调研会的方式。向与会专家获取有关预测对象的信息,经归纳、分析、判断和推算,对决策对象的未来发展趋势及状况作出判断,又称集团头脑风暴法。

德尔菲法采用匿名函询调查的方式,由领导小组将针对决策问题设计好的调查表寄给专家小组成员,通过函询征求专家意见,对各种意见汇总整理,将其作为参考资料,再匿名寄给各位专家,不断征询、修改、补充完善,反复多次,直到多数专家看法一致或不再修改自己的意见时,最终得到一套完整的预测方案。

单项选择题
单项选择题

An eight-year-old child heard her parents talking about her little brother. All she knew was that he was very sick and they had no money left. When she heard her daddy say to her (1) mother," (2) a miracle can save him now", the little girl went to her bedroom and took out her piggy bank. She (3) all the change out on the floor and counted it carefully. Then she (4) her way six blocks to the drugstore.

"And what do you want" asked the shopkeeper. "It’s (5) my little brother," the girl answered back. "He’s really, really sick and I want to buy a (6) . His name is Andrew and he has something (7) growing inside his head and my daddy says only a miracle can save him. " "We don’t (8) miracles here, child. I’m sorry." the chemist said, smiling (9) at the little girl.

In the shop was a (10) customer. He stooped down and asked the little girl, "What kind of miracle does your brother (11) " "I don’t know," she replied. "He’s really sick and mommy says he needs (12) . But my daddy can’t pay for it, so I have brought my (13) .""How much do you have" asked the man. "One dollar and eleven cents, (14) I can try and get some more," she answered quietly. "Well, what a coincidence," smiled the man. "A dollar and eleven cents—the (15) price of a miracle for little brothers. (16) me to where you live. I want to see your brother and (17) your parents. "

That well-dressed man was Dr Carlton Armp, a doctor. The operation was completed without any (18) and it wasn’t long before Andrew was (19) again. The little girl was happy. She knew exactly how much the miracle cost—one dollar and eleven cents—also the (20) of a little child.

12()

A.a doctor

B.a nurse

C.an operation

D.a kindness