问题 单项选择题

决策树分析是风险分析过程中的一项常用技术。某企业在项目风险分析过程中,采用了决策树分析方法,并计算出了EMV(期望货币值),如图26-12所示。以下说法中,正确的是()。

A.以上进行的是定量风险分析,根据分析结果应选择修改现有技术方案的路线

B.以上进行的是定量风险分析,根据分析结果应选择设计新技术方案的路线

C.以上进行的是定性风险分析,根据分析结果应选择修改现有技术方案的路线

D.以上进行的是定性风险分析,根据分析结果应选择设计新技术方案的路线

答案

参考答案:A

解析:

期望货币值(EMV)或决策树分析是定量风险分析的工具与技术之一。机会的期望货币价值(EMV)一般表示为正数,而风险的期望货币价值(EMV)一般表示为负数。每个可能结果的数值与其发生概率相乘之后相加,即可得出期望货币价值。在图26-12所示的决策树中,修改现有技术方案路线的EMV=49万元,而设计新技术方案路线的EMV=41.5万元,49>41.5,因此建议该企业选择修改现有技术方案的路线。

阅读理解

Why should we learn to swim?

Firstly, swimming is a good exercise for our health. Indeed doctors say it is the best exercise, because in swimming all the muscles of the body are used.

Secondly, swimming gives great pleasure. How nice it is, on a hot dusty day in summer, to take off one’s clothes and dive into the cool water of a rive or the sea, and to swim and float until one feels enough.

Thirdly, swimming may sometimes mean all the different between life and death, we never know when we may be in danger from water. We got on a voyage, and the ship in wrecked; we go for a pleasure sail on a lake and the boat turns over; we slip as we are walking along the bank of a river, and half in the water. If we can swim, we have chance for saving our own lives, but if we cannot swim, we are pretty certain to be drowned. So for our own safety, we should learn to swim.

Lastly, if we can swim, we may be able to save other people from drowning. How sad it is to see a friend drowning before our eyes while we cannot help just because we cannot swim.

11.Who says that swimming is the best exercise?  _________.

A. Farmers          B. Dentists     C. Fishermen            D. Doctors

12.When swimming, ________.

A. We don’t move at all                    B. all the muscle of the body are used

C. we move our legs only                D. we drink lots of seawater into our stomach

13.Swimming ­­­­________.

A. gives great pain                     B. gives no pleasure   

C. gives much pleasure                  D. does harm to the body

14.If we can swim, ________.

A. we are no longer humans, but fish         B. we shall be drowned one day

C. we have a chance of saving our own lives   D. we can’t walk any more

15.If we can swim, ________.

A. we may be able to help others from drowning 

B. we can’t save others from drowning

C. it is pretty danger certain that we will get drowned

D. there is a great danger when we fall into the water

选择题