问题 单项选择题

以一种检验方法诊断癌症,真患癌症和未患癌症被诊断正确的概率分别为0.95和0.90.今对一批患癌症比率为2%的人用此方法进行检验,则其中某人被诊断为患有癌症时,他真的患有癌症的概率为

A.0.462

B.0.362

C.0.262

D.0.162

答案

参考答案:D

解析: 设A1=“他患有癌症”,A2=“他未患癌症”,B=“诊断为癌症”,则
P(A1)=0.02,P(A2)=0.98,P(B|A1)=0.95,P(B|A2)=1-0.90=0.10,
根据贝叶斯公式可得
[*]
故选D

阅读理解

Let's travel the world together

Nickname: Zaloxx

Email:jdlxx8@yahoo. com

When to travel: Feb 2010-Apr 2010

Self-introduction.. A 40+ male with strong physical and financial abilities. Hope to travel in

India, Singapore and Thailand for business as well as for fun.

My travel plan: Fly to Delhi and spend 3 weeks in India travelling mostly in north. Fly to

Singapore and Thailand for a few business matters and mainly for fun.

Whom I am looking for: A female to travel with me. She should be an attractive 30-40 healthy romantic lady and love travelling and relaxing.

Together for Christmas and New Year?

Nickname: Rue Rose

Email: sofitsao@taishin, com. tw

When to travel: Dec 2010-Jan 2011

Self-introduction: I am a fit, young, looking 40 years old female, who is easy-going, fun to be with.

My travel plan: Would like to go somewhere hot-Cuba, Africa, Morocco, and so on. Perhaps the Christmas and New Year there are more interesting.

Whom I am looking for: A male much with similar interests. A non-smoker and light drinker.

Travel in good company!

Nickname: Louise

Email: misskennedy@hotmail, co. uk

When to travel: Jan 2010

Self-introduction: 40 years old, fun-loving and easy-going.

My travel plan: I need a break and I am open to anywhere.

Whom I am looking for: A male travel companion(同伴), 24-40. A non-smoker who enjoys

outside activities. Prefer someone that speaks Spanish.

Need a travel companion in Thailand!

Nickname: Gio

Email: esteban407@yahoo, com

When to travel: Feb 2010-Apr 2010

Self-introduction: I am 28 years old from London. I like to keep fit and enjoy hiking and camping.

My travel plan: I plan to visit Thailand and travel around the country to enjoy nature and the sunshine.

Whom I am looking for: Someone around my age. A male who is willing to have an active holiday.

小题1: If the Londoner and his companion travel in March, 2010, they will probably be in

A.Cuba

B.Singapore

C.India

D.Thailand小题2: Why does Rue Rose plan a journey with her companion?

A.To adventure in cold places.

B.To spend festivals outside.

C.To learn Spanish.

D.To solve business matters.小题3: A lady who wants to be a travel companion can send email to

A.jdlxx8@yahoo, com

B.sofitsao@taishin. com. tw

C.esteban407@yahoo, com

D.misskennedy@hotmail. co. uk小题4: People in the advertisements above want to       .

A.introduce their travel experiences

B.make friends with strangers while traveling

C.find proper travel partners

D.look for someone to look after them while traveling

单项选择题