An analyst does research about Bayes' form

问题单项选择题

An analyst does research about Bayes' formula and estimates the following information regarding bonus for management and the net income of a company:

Event	Probability
Net income increases given management received a bonus	0.7
Net income mcreases given management did not receive a bonus	0.3

The analyst's prior probability that management received a bonus is 0.5. Using Bayes' formula, if the company announces an increase in net income, the probability management received a bonus is closest to:

A. 0.22
B. 0.78
C. 0.86

答案

参考答案：B

解析： (0.7×0.5)/(0.7×0.5+0.3×0.4)=0.78。