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WASHINGTON: An analysis of global temperatures by independent statisticians shows the Earth is
still warming and not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming.
The analysis was conducted at the request of The Associated Press to investigate the legitimacy of
talk of a cooling trend that has been spreading on the Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book
and temperatures that have been cooler in a few recent years.
In short, it is not true, according to the statisticians who contributed to the analysis.
The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend of falling temperatures over
time.US government data show the decade that ends in December will be the warmest in 130 years of
record-keeping, and 2005 was the hottest year recorded.
The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than
previous years. It has been a while since the superhot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate
trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look
for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature
declines over time.
"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a microtrend within a bigger trend, that technique is
particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.
Yet the idea that things are cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, a BBC news story posted
on the Drudge Report and in a new book by the authors of the best-seller Freakonomics. Last week, a
poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong
scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77 percent in 2006.
1. The first paragraph serves as a (n) _______.
A. explanation
B. introduction
C. comment
D. background
2. According to the passage ,the hottest year in 130 years of record-keeping is _____ .
A. 1998
B. 2005
C. 2006
D. 2010
3. How many factors lead to the idea that the earth is cooling?
A. 2
B. 3
C. 4
D .5
4. We can learn from the passage that _____.
A. five independent statisticians were given temperature data to look for trends
B. more and more Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming
C. The analysis of global temperatures was required by the independent statisticians
D. The earth is not becoming cooler as some people are claiming on the internet
