无须借助外力就可以产生调控效果的财政政策工具包括( )。

A．转移性支出

B．公债

C．资本性支出

D．财政补贴

Suppose an investor has an opportunity to invest $3 million in a venture investment that is expected to pay $30 million at the end of 4 years if it survives. The cost of capital for a project with this risk level is 30%. However, the project may not survive the full 4 years and has an expected failure rate shown in the probability table shown below. The likelihood of failure in the first year is 25% , with the likelihood of failure in the second year being 20% ( assuming it survives the first year) and so on.（）

A．20%

B．45.9%

C．25%