New crime prediction software should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of other crimes. Developed by Richard Berk, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, the software has already used in Baltimore and Philadelphia to predict which individuals on probation(缓刑) or parole(假释) are most likely to murder and to be murdered.
“When a person goes on probation or parole he is supervised(监督) by an officer. The question is ‘what level of supervision is appropriate?’” said Berk. It used to be that parole officers used the person’s criminal record, and their judgment to make decisions.
“This research replaces those seat-of-the –pants calculations,” he said.
Technology helps determine level of supervision. On average there is one murder for every 100,000 people. Even among high-risk groups the murder rate is one in 100. Predicting such a rare event is very difficult, but advances in computer technology works.
Years ago, the researchers made a dataset of more than 60,000 various crimes. Using the software they developed, they found some much more likely to commit murder when paroled or probated. They could identify eight future murderers out of 100.
Berk’s software examines roughly two dozen variables(可变因素), from criminal record to geographic location. The type of crimes, and more importantly, the age at which that crime was committed, were two of the most predictive variables.
“People assume that if someone murdered then they will murder in the future,” said Berk. “ What really matters is what that person did as a young individual. Predicting future crimes sounds well. But we aren’t anywhere near being able to do that.”
“Berk’s scientific answer leaves policymakers with difficult questions. By labeling one group of people as high risk, and supervise them closely, there should be fewer murders, which the potential victims should be happy about. It also means that those high-risk individuals will be supervised more aggressively. For human rights advocates, that means punishing people who, most likely, will not commit a crime in the future,” said Bushway. “It comes down to a question of whether you would rather make these errors or those errors.”
小题1:The underlined words(in Para.3) probably mean___.
A．calculations based on subjective opinions
B．calculations based on widespread voting
C．calculations made by advanced technology
D．calculations based on serious considering小题2:For 650 people with crime records, how many potential murderers would the software find?
A．6.5.
B．13.
C．52.
D．65.小题3:From Para 7, we can infer that______.
A．the technology developed by Richard Berk will soon be widely used in the US
B．the technology would not be widely accepted in the short term
C．whether a person murders or not largely decided by his upbringing while young
D．if a person murdered when he was fifty, he is sure to murder again while on probation小题4:Bushway’s attitude to the technology put forward by Richard Berk is ____.
A．positive
B．negative
C．objective
D．indifferent小题5:Which would be the best title for the passage?
A．Closely Supervise Potential Murders
B．Measures Taken to Prevent Criminal Behavior
C．Technology Revolutionizes Judges’ Way of Working
D．Software is Developed to Predict Criminal Behavior
