简要论述建立事故机理模型的流程。
参考答案：
按照下列流程建立事故机理模型：
(1)调研并对研究基础进行限定
包括所有有关数据的收集，以便使分析尽可能地建立在准确的基础上。这些数据主要来自于设计图样和与设施的设计与生产作业相关的文件资料，包括生产工艺、设备等方面的基础数据，同时对评估的边界进行界定。
(2)建立事故致因物理模型
这个过程就是要了解什么将会导致危险的出现。危险性辨识包括调查所有可能引起事故的潜在因素，还要进一步分析这些因素的出现可能是由哪些具体条件综合引起的。
(3)事故概率估算(建立事故概率数学模型)
通过利用相关失效统计历史数据、对相关作业特点和危险事件发生所依靠的环境和条件及其相互间关系进行分析，结合使用成熟技术估算所认定的危险发生意外事故概率。
(4)事故后果定量评估
实施后果评估的类型和详细程度是基于对实际危险的认定。
| With the understanding of phobias has come a magic bag of treatments: exposure therapy that can stomp out a lifetime phobia in a single six-hour session; virtual-reality programs that can safely simulate the thing the phobia most fears, slowly stripping it of its power to terrorize; new medications that can snuff the brain’s phobic spark before it can catch. In the past year, the U. S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first drug—an existing antidepressant. Most psychologists now assign phobias to one of the three broad categories: social phobias, in which the sufferer feels paralyzing fear at the prospect of social or professional encounters; panic disorders, in which the person is periodically blindsided by overwhelming fear for no apparent reason; and specific phobias—fear of snakes and enclosed spaces and heights and the like. If you are living with a generalized sense of danger, it can be profoundly therapeutic to find a single object on which to deposit all that unformed fear—a snake, a spider and a rat. A specific phobia becomes a sort of backfire for fear, a controlled blaze that prevents other blazes from catching. But a condition that is so easy to pick up is becoming almost as easy to shake, usually without resort to drugs. What turns up the wattage of a phobia the most is the strategy the phobias rely on to ease their discomfort: avoidance. The harder phobics work to avoid the things they fear, the more the brain grows convinced that the threat is real. Progress in treating social-anxiety disorder is also providing hope for the last—and most disabling—of the family of phobias: panic disorder. Panic disorder is to anxiety conditions what a tornado is to weather conditions: a devastating sneaks havoc and then simply vanishes. Unlike the specific phobic and the social phobic who know what will trigger their fear, the victim of panic attacks never know where or when one will hit. Someone who experiences an attack in, say, a supermarket will often not return there, associating the once neutral place with the traumatic event. But the perceived circle of safety can quickly shrink, until sufferers may be confined entirely to their homes. When this begins to happen, panic disorder mutates into full-blown agoraphobia. The treatment for agoraphobia is much the same as it is for social phobia: cognitive-behavioral therapy and drugs. |
Which of the following is NOT true of the treatment with more and more understanding of phobia
A．New medicines that can get rid of the fear in the brain.
B．New psychological methods that can help people not fear.
C．New medicines that can remove phobia in six-hour period.
D．The method that can help people overcome phobia by facing fearful things.