问题
单项选择题
An analyst has been hired to evaluate a high-risk project. The analyst estimates the probability that the project will fail in the first year as well as the conditional probability of failure for each of the remaining four years of the project, as follows:()
A．$2406
B．$2506
C．$1406
答案
参考答案：A
解析：
[分析]： 由题干可知，该项目在5年后最终成功的概率为0.75×0.80×0.80×0.85×0.90=0.3672，从而该项目投资回报的期望值为200(30×0.3672=7344美元，上述投资回报期望值的现值等于7344/(1+25%)5=2406美元。
[考点] 与联合概率有关的计算