问题 问答题

什么是均衡汇率汇率的影响因素有哪些

答案

参考答案:

解析:均衡汇率通常是指与购买力平价相一致,能够维持一国国际收支均衡;而又能维持国内经济安定的汇率。目前,在学术著作中,也习惯于将均衡汇率定义为与内部均衡(主要指商品市场和劳动力市场)和外部均衡(可持续的经常项目)保持一致的实际汇率水平。 影响汇率的因素有很多,但概括起来,主要有以下几种: 第一,一国的经济增长速度。这是影响汇率波动的最基本的因素。根据凯恩斯学派的宏观经济理论,国民总产值的增长会引起国民收入和支出的增长。收入增加会导致进口产品的需求扩张,继而扩大对外汇的需求,推动本币贬值。而支出的增长意味着社会投资和消费的增加,有利于促进生产的发展,提高产品的国际竞争力,刺激出口增加外汇供给。所以从长期来看,经济增长会引起本币升值。 第二,国际收支平衡的情况。这是影响汇率的最直接的一个因素。国际收支中如果出口大于进口,资金流入,意味着国际市场对该国货币的需求增加,则本币会上升。反之,若进口大于出口,资金流出,则国际市场对该国货币的需求下降,本币会贬值。 第三,物价水平和通货膨胀水平的差异。在纸币制度下,汇率从根本上来说是由货币所代表的实际价值所决定的。按照购买力评价说,货币购买力的比价即货币汇率。如果一国的物价水平高,通货膨胀率高,说明本币的购买力下降,会促使本币贬值。反之,就趋于升值。 第四,利率水平的差异。利率对汇率的影响主要是通过对套利资本流动的影响来实现的。温和的通货膨胀下,较高利率会吸引外国资金的流入,同时抑制国内需求,进口减少,使得本币升高。但在严重通货膨胀下,利率就与汇率成负相关的关系小。 第五,人们的心理预期。这一因素在目前的国际金融市场上表现得尤为突出。汇兑心理学认为外汇汇率是外汇供求双方对货币主观,合理评价的集中体现。评价高,信心强,则货币升值。 除此之外,影响汇率波动的因素还包括政府的货币和汇率政策、突发事件、国际投机的冲击、经济数据的公布甚至政府要员的言论等。这些因素之间相互作用,形成了现实的汇率。

阅读理解

I shall never forget the day when the earthquake took place. The time was about 5 o’clock in the afternoon and I was driving along the road to take my daughter from school. Our plan was to go swimming together. I finished my work at 4 o’clock and then went to the post office. Then I stopped off at a shop in order to get some fresh fruit. We’d like to have some fruit after swimming.

I was driving along a high road on my way to my daughter’s school. Over my road was another road, which was built like a bridge for cars coming to the other way. I was hungry so I put the bag of apples in the seat beside me and started to eat one.

Suddenly I saw the cars in front of me start to move from side to side. Then my car started to shake! I didn't know what was happening. Perhaps something had gone wrong with my car. I drove more slowly and then I stopped the car and at the same moment the road fell onto the cars in front of me.

I found myself in the dark. I couldn't move. The bottom parts of both of my legs and my feet were hurting badly and I couldn't move them. All around me was quiet. But above me I could hear shouts and a lot of noise. Then I memorized what had happened. I had been in an earthquake.

For about two hours nobody came. Luckily I could reach the bag of apples, so at least I had plenty to eat. Then I heard people climbing towards me. A team of people had come to see if anyone was under the broken road. I called out, “I’m here!” when I heard a shout. Soon a stranger climbed to the side of the road near my car. “How are you doing?” he asked. “Not too bad, ”I said. “But my feet and legs feel as if they’re broken.”“We’ll have you out of there just as soon as we can.” They didn't get me out until the next morning. I had been in my car for fourteen hours.

小题1:When the earthquake took place, the writer was        .

A.on his way to the post office

B.stopping off at a shop

C.doing some shopping

D.under a road built like a bridge小题2:The writer’s car began to move from side to side because      .

A.there was something wrong with his car

B.he ate apples as he drove

C.an earthquake happened

D.he drove too fast小题3:Which of the following is TRUE according to the passage?

A.When the earthquake happened, the writer was with his daughter together.

B.The writer’s legs and feet were badly wounded in the earthquake.

C.The writer was saved as soon as the stranger climbed up the road.

D.The writer was so frightened that he forgot everything that happened around him.小题4:Which of the following shows the right order of what happened to the writer?

a. A stranger climbed to the side of road near his car and asked how he was doing.

b. The writer finished his work.

c. He felt his car shaking on his way to his daughter’s school.

d. He bought some fresh fruit in a shop.

e. He was saved the next morning.

f. The writer found himself in the dark.

g. He went to the post office.

A.b,g,d,c,f,a,e

B.b,d,c,g,f,a,e

C.d,b,c,f,g,a,e

D.c,a,f,g,b,d,e小题5:From the passage we’re sure that the writer was         .

A.a teacher of a school

B.a manager of a shop

C.a father of a girl

D.a worker of a post office

选择题