计算题:某汽车制造厂正在预测下年度的销售额。该公司的预测人员已估计了6种不同的“环境—策略”组合的销售额：
预测人员认为发生经济衰退的概率是0.20，而经济正常发展的概率是0.80；他还认为公司营销预算高、中、低的概率分别是0.30、0.50、0.20。他得到的单点预测值是多少？
参考答案：
经济衰退的期望值E1为：
E1=15×0.30+12×0.50+10×0.20=12.5
经济正常的期望值E2为：
E2=20×0.30+16×0.50+14×0.20=16.8
F=∑EiPi=12.5×0.20+16.8×0.80=15.94
因此，下年度该汽车厂可能的销售额为15.94。
| 完形填空。 | ||||
| One summer morning, I was walking in the street when I ran into a stranger passing by. "I am sorry" was my reply. Then he said, "Excuse me, too! I even didn't notice you." We were very 1 , this stranger and I. Then we went on our 2 after saying goodbye. But at home, a different story is told. How do we treat our loved ones, young and old? Later in the kitchen, 3 I cooked our meal, my daughter walked up to me, without any sound. When I turned around, I nearly 4 her down."Get out of the way!" I shouted. She stepped away 5 , with her little heart broken. I didn't realize how rudely I had spoken. That night, when I lay awake in bed, God's quiet voice spoke to me and said, "While 6 with a stranger, you are calm and polite, but with those you love, you are quick to get angry and look around the kitchen floor, you will find some flowers she brought for you. She 7 them herself-pink, yellow, and your favorite blue. She stood there quietly, and you 8 saw the tears in her eyes." By this time my tears had begun to fall. I quietly went and knelt (跪) by her bed," 9 , my dear," I said, "Are these the flowers you wanted to give to me?" She smiled,"Yes, they're just for you. I knew you'd like them, especially the blue," I said,"I am sorry that I 10 them today-and I shouldn't have shouted at you that way." | ||||
|