问题 问答题

某企业拟投资一个项目,估算总投资11913万元。预计年销售收入6488万元,税后财务内部收益率(IRR)为11.59%。该项目存在两个主要风险变量,即产品销售价格和关键原料价格可能与预期有所不同。产品销售价格估计值为3500元/t,该关键原料价格估计值为400元/kg,产品销售价格可能出现三种情况:有50%的可能为原估计值3500元/t,有30%的可能为 3000元/t,有20%的可能为2500元/t;该关键原料的价格可能出现两种情况:有70%的可能为原估计值400元/kg,有30%的可能为450元/kg。各种可能出现的情况以及对应的IRR见下表。

产品销售价格与原材料价格不同情况下对应的IRR表

【问题】

1.画出概率树。

2.采用概率树分析方法,计算IRR的期望值。

答案

参考答案:

1.概率树绘制如下图所示。

2.IRR的期望值=0.35×11.59%+0.15×11.23%+0.21×8.56%+0.09×8.17%+0.14× 5.19%+0.06×4.75%=9.29%

阅读理解

Dear Hamilton,

We are fortunate that in such a large, high-pressure office we all get along so well. You are one of the people who keep the social temperature at such a comfortable setting. I don’t know anyone in the office who is better liked than you.

You can perhaps help with this. The collection of contributions towards gifts for employees’ personal-life events is becoming a little troubling. Certainly, the group sending of a gift is reasonable now and then. In the past month, however, there have been collections for two baby shower gifts, one wedding shower gift, two wedding gifts, one funeral(葬礼)remembrance, four birthday gifts, and three graduation gifts.

It’s not only the collected-from who are growing uncomfortable (and poor), but the collected-for feel uneasy receiving gifts from people who don’t know them outside the office, who wouldn’t even recognize their graduating children, their marrying daughters and sons, or their dead relatives.

This is basically a kind gesture (and one that people think well of you for), but the practice seems to have become too wide-ranging and feels improper in today’s office setting.

Thank you for understanding.

小题1:The underlined word “contributions” probably means ________.

A.money

B.suggestions

C.reports

D.understanding小题2:Hamilton is expected to _______.

A.show more kindness.

B.discontinue the present practice

C.quit being the organizer for gift giving

D.know more about co-workers’ families小题3:This is basically a letter of ________.

A.apology

B.sympathy

C.appreciation

D.dissatisfaction

单项选择题 B1型题