问题 问答题

行情预测的要求有哪些

答案

参考答案:为了尽量减少预测结果与实际的偏差,提高预测结果的可靠性,必须尽量达到以下几点要求:
(1) 要明确预测的对象和目标。行情研究牵涉面广,影响因素多,预测对象一定要明确,目标要具体。
(2) 预测人员必须具备较宽的知识面和较强的分析判断能力。
(3) 重视调查研究,重视资料收集。
(4) 要反复对比。预测中常常需要利用事后预测的方法,用选定的预测模型对现在已发生并掌握资料的事件进行预测,然后把预测结果与实际资料对比,从而发现误差,以便修正模型,提高预测精度。

单项选择题

The questions in this group are based on the content of a passage. After reading the passage, choose the best answer to each question. Answer all questions following the passage on the basis of what is stated or implied in the passage.

Congressman Hastings has proposed that Congress should abolish the Electoral College system for electing the president and replace it with a system of direct popular election. The Electoral College system is flawed, he argues, because it runs directly counter to the democratic principle that every citizen’s vote should count equally.

Because of the winner-take-all system in which the candidate who receives the most popular votes in a state receives all of that state’s electoral votes, the citizens who voted for the losing candidate are effectively disenfranchised from the national election, even if their candidate lost the state by only a handful of votes. Moreover, because each state’s number of electors is the same as its number of members of Congress, the citizens of small states get a disproportionately larger vote than citizens of more populous states. In the 1988 election, for example, the combined voting-age population of the six least populous states--Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming--was 3,119,000. These six states held 21 electoral votes among them. Florida, with a voting-age population of 9,614,000, also had 21 electoral votes. Because of inequities of this nature, there have been four presidential elections in which the candidate who won the Electoral College actually lost the popular vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000.

Congressman Markham has argued that Hastings’s proposed changes are unnecessary and even dangerous. First of all, he argues, the Electoral College system, whatever its flaws, has resulted in a stable democratic government for more than 200 years, which shows that it is doing something right. Second, the winner-take-all system helps create decisive majorities in the Electoral College, thereby reducing the problem of disputed elections that we might see in the event of direct popular elections. Third, the current system of allocating electors helps protect the interests of small states, which would be largely neglected in favor of large states if the Electoral College were based entirely on population. Protecting these states’ rights is essential to upholding the principle of federalism (in which the states and the federal government maintain distinct powers).

When the Electoral College system was first formalized by the Twelfth Amendment in 1804, a direct popular vote would have been impossible to implement, and the Electoral College was probably the best way to approximate the will of the people. Advances in technology and communication, however, now mean that a direct popular vote would be as simple, if not simpler, to administer than the current Electoral College system. Alternative ways to reform the system would be to do away with the winner-take-all system of state electors, to base the numbers of electors strictly on state populations, or to have a direct popular election but to weight the votes from different states differently in order to preserve the influence of small states.

Which of the following examples from international politics, if true, would give Markham the most support in his argument against Hastings ?()

A. A nation in Africa that modeled its government on the American governmental system after achieving independence from a European colonial power recently entered into a civil war that has effectively ended any true democratic processes.

B. The ancient city-state of Athens had a form of direct popular election in the fifth century B.C., but this government fell as a result of the Peloponnesian War that Athens fought against Sparta.

C. A South American nation that deposed its long-standing military dictatorship and instituted in its place a democratic government with a president elected through a direct popular election has experienced both economic growth and improved relations with the international community.

D. A nation in Central Europe that recently changed its government from a long- standing parliamentary monarchy to a government led by a popularly elected premier was recently thrown into chaos when the popularly elected premier declared a dictatorship.

E. The system of proportional power sharing by the members of the European Union has resulted in a number of thorny disputes between member states that will probably grow more severe as new nations from Eastern Europe enter the EU.

单项选择题 A3/A4型题